Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9a5b1366eac53dc1ab1246b3c99ff0a91fb30c3e6273ae3003d8f1dfa17cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 245.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 185.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 164.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 158.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 71c | 131.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 44c | 128.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 123.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 9c | 121.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 100.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 86.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 77c | 84.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 82.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 63c | 79.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 73.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 70.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 72c | 69.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 69.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 67.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 65.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 20c | 57.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 43c | 54.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…7222backed Yes | 44c | 53.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 52.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 51.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 50.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 46.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 58c | 43.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 41.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 39.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 36.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 35.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 72c | 34.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 58c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 22.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 67c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed No | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.