TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes43c245.02$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.645,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c185.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes77c164.9$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.652,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes32c158.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2940237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0925038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No71c131.58$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6710133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb830…2ff3backed Yes44c128.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.763650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes25c123.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8743238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes9c121.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes27c101$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0340741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes33c100.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No57c87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4119052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No80c86.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No77c84.02$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No28c82.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.784,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1575…ac63backed No63c79.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes32c73.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.374,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c70.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.943,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No66c70.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.85,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b2…3ef1backed No72c69.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.97176.1%54 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c69.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.413,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No79c67.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c65.7$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.885,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes20c57.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.254656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c27…ee11backed Yes43c54.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0d2…7222backed Yes44c53.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No55c52.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.041,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes34c51.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes34c51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c50.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.252,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.845738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes22c49.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9924434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No77c47.41$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7646667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c46.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes43c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.552,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No58c43.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No67c43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1963757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No75c41.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.316339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c39.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.313,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c36.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.034,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No67c35.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd13c…5992backed No72c34.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes36c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2424053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes53c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.492,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.674,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.94546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No51c29.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5213134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes44c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.012,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No77c25.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.254647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.56861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No58c24.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1727464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.276,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No63c22.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No66c22.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.722,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No67c22.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3454857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No51c22.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.911,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.385162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c6…94a2backed No69c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.521968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No75c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No73c19.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No80c18.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.776160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes65c18.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.321,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No64c17.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.532,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No67c15.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0814674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No69c15.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No79c14.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41c…4859backed No72c14.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.01771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.