WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b38e8cd743a17d3e462d8c4c9a84a050dafc234b810b1dffd9ab66355eccfc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Toronto Tempo, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 5,030$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 3,024$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.89 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 53c | 2,226$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.64 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo | 46c | 2,087$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.36 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 1,222$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.22 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Toronto Tempo | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo | 49c | 373$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed PortlandFire | 51c | 223.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed PortlandFire | 53c | 187.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed PortlandFire | 49c | 179.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 149.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Toronto Tempo | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…1c90backed PortlandFire | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed PortlandFire | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed PortlandFire | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)this page
- Portland Fire vs. Toronto TempoPortland Fire won
- PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.