TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Portland Fireof Portland Fire, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Portland Fire56c10,000$5,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,351.0816152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo65c5,063$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.9532049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Portland Fire35c4,873$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.314540%18 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Tempo27c4,688$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.7420947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Toronto Tempo42c4,503$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.66560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+77.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Portland Fire41c4,214$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.0550646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Toronto Tempo45c3,662$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Tempo43c3,636$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.7622748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo56c3,396$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.4799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Portland Fire61c2,067$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.375466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Toronto Tempo57c2,059$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16423049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Fire56c1,729$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.291,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Toronto Tempo29c1,705$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.093732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79f7…ef5bbacked Portland Fire58c1,597$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Toronto Tempo41c1,584$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.434623.9%11 W · 35 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-48.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Portland Fire60c1,269$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.84854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Tempo46c1,221$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.725250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Tempo47c1,210$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.134847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Portland Fire36c1,208$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.942157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Fire45c1,152$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.3636454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Portland Fire65c1,066$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1526147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Tempo37c914.3$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.3726247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Toronto Tempo53c869.99$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.16956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Portland Fire35c709.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.513024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Portland Fire51c637.66$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.710923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1b…ec19backed Toronto Tempo65c624.46$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.92937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Tempo31c617$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.588051.3%41 W · 39 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a1b…722abacked Portland Fire35c600$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Portland Fire46c550$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.52133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Toronto Tempo52c549.7$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.843056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Toronto Tempo55c537.97$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Toronto Tempo36c505.46$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.979129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Toronto Tempo53c476.05$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.36237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Portland Fire43c416$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Portland Fire51c413.51$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.813844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Tempo24c409$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.812857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Toronto Tempo35c402.66$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9212745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Portland Fire59c371.42$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9319031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Portland Fire35c350$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Toronto Tempo66c347.45$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Portland Fire60c335.77$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1316633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Toronto Tempo61c329.22$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9119458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8884…f29bbacked Portland Fire59c324.45$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Toronto Tempo63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Toronto Tempo32c301.92$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Portland Fire34c299.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.993053.3%16 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+68.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Portland Fire34c299.85$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.96643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Portland Fire35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+48.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Toronto Tempo31c285.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.397041.4%29 W · 41 L-11.1wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-29.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Portland Fire38c282$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4555255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Portland Fire64c281.8$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.824852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Tempo65c279$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3536154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Portland Fire72c277.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7710144.6%45 W · 56 L-13.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7ac7…3ef9backed Portland Fire36c270.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.392740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Tempo32c263.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.436640.9%27 W · 39 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e0a…629dbacked Portland Fire39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.411957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Tempo25c252$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.427647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Toronto Tempo46c245.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.661042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Tempo42c220.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9537850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6858…7d47backed Portland Fire35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Portland Fire33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13421337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Toronto Tempo65c199.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9912144.6%54 W · 67 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Tempo32c196.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.525949.2%29 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Portland Fire47c195.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2115250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Toronto Tempo67c194.41$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Tempo32c182.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3712343.1%53 W · 70 L-11.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Portland Fire28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.572373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Portland Fire35c176.94$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.241163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cff…eeb8backed Portland Fire44c176.25$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.511428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Portland Fire37c166.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9423955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Toronto Tempo64c156.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e5…6e53backed Toronto Tempo78c155.35$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.814050%20 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…ad8cbacked Toronto Tempo68c147.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.6wins-0.52per pick66cpaid-78.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Portland Fire35c145.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.873447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Toronto Tempo73c144.96$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.821172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175e…8e46backed Toronto Tempo65c138.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Portland Fire70c134.43$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7231043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Toronto Tempo64c134.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Toronto Tempo45c133.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd30f…eea0backed Portland Fire44c132.29$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+181.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed Toronto Tempo69c128.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Portland Fire50c119.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Toronto Tempo44c114.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Toronto Tempo57c111.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.36127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Toronto Tempo25c111.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3044…834bbacked Portland Fire44c111.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.24560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+99.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Toronto Tempo45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Portland Fire35c106.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.429146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Toronto Tempo45c106.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Portland Fire35c105.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.521533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Portland Fire47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538154.3%44 W · 37 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb28…02bbbacked Toronto Tempo66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Toronto Tempo64c99.97$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.981560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Toronto Tempo64c99.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.987350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Portland Fire47c99.96$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.982060%12 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo55c98.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7885158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Toronto Tempo32c97.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Portland Fire36c96.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0820642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Portland Fire33c96.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9613422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Portland Fire36c95.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.235141.2%21 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.