MLB · resolved market
Will the Guardians beat the Tigers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b48b0bef1923ec376feca1f946daddcb53817e7b93bbf5cd7da8a1cba747bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Tigers | 50c | 31,129$15,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,575.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Guardians | 50c | 28,896$14,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,451.67 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Tigers | 28c | 2,653$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tigers | 52c | 2,366$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.11 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…1335backed Guardians | 49c | 1,745$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians | 48c | 1,550$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…6afabacked Guardians | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…41f3backed Tigers | 52c | 1,004$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380d…58a1backed Guardians | 49c | 1,003$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Tigers | 51c | 999$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Tigers | 52c | 945$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Guardians | 48c | 945$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Tigers | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Guardians | 50c | 870.15$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.68 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…d7fcbacked Tigers | 51c | 747.94$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…cc65backed Guardians | 47c | 735.46$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tigers | 50c | 510.15$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.08 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Tigers | 53c | 396.23$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Guardians | 47c | 365$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Tigers | 53c | 365$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Guardians | 48c | 281.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Tigers | 52c | 281.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Tigers | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…43f6backed Tigers | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Tigers | 8c | 211.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Tigers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Tigers | 61c | 165.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 60c | 155.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Tigers | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…886fbacked Guardians | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Tigers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Guardians | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Tigers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…6f4fbacked Guardians | 54c | 67.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…4ed1backed Tigers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5063…9826backed Tigers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Tigers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f77…70a1backed Tigers | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Tigers | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Tigers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Tigers | 52c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Guardians | 49c | 23.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed Guardians | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Guardians beat the Tigers?this page
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
- Will the Guardians and Tigers combine for 6 or more runs?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.