Tennis · resolved market
Ashlyn Krueger vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b577fe7ad0e9de0bd4738bf96a3b77a4821e25ef83eb39ffc85591b528b5784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 1,374$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 623.05$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 300.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 175$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…eac7backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 142.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 128.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…d597backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 48.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…69cabacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 34.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ashlyn Krueger vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Krueger vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Krueger vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Krueger vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Krueger vs KostyukKostyuk won
- Set 2 Winner: Krueger vs KostyukKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Krueger (+1.5)Kostyuk won
- Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta KostyukMarta Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.