CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b57b5c9ca9a5339e5f9f452a5fdaaf4bf3b926b704efbea76eff38c2923ab26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keydof Yawara Esports, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Keyd | 76c | 3,049$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.93 | 630 | 57.1%360 W · 270 L | +40.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Yawara Esports | 55c | 2,312$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.94 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Keyd | 67c | 1,194$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.46 | 518 | 42.3%219 W · 299 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 68c | 595.08$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Keyd | 66c | 526.79$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Keyd | 67c | 400.56$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Yawara Esports | 27c | 394.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 2,520 | 43%1,084 W · 1,436 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Keyd | 65c | 263$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 2,343 | 46.7%1,094 W · 1,249 L | -49.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Yawara Esports | 22c | 256.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Keyd | 68c | 203.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3467…a440backed Keyd | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Keyd | 75c | 184.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yawara Esports | 7c | 174.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Keyd | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…f2f8backed Keyd | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Keyd | 74c | 146.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Keyd | 73c | 121.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Yawara Esports | 36c | 121.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Yawara Esports | 44c | 116.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 944 | 45.7%431 W · 513 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed Keyd | 67c | 98.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 188 | 71.8%135 W · 53 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Keyd | 56c | 82.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yawara Esports | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 300 | 49.3%148 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed Yawara Esports | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked Yawara Esports | 30c | 48.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…e597backed Yawara Esports | 30c | 47.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yawara Esports | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yawara Esports | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 26.3%61 W · 171 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6280…f8cbbacked Yawara Esports | 39c | 37.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Keyd | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed2…65e5backed Yawara Esports | 30c | 34.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Yawara Esports | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 232 | 35.3%82 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…e9cebacked Keyd | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 182 | 81.3%148 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Keyd | 73c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Keyd | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 171 | 59.6%102 W · 69 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm PlayoffsKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 WinnerYawara Esports won
- Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5)Yawara Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.