CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd650edb1ff960a839b8a92901f1c08b43769c08b9bee5b7117db6899f4a10b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yawara Esportsof Yawara Esports, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Yawara Esports | 65c | 4,290$2,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.8 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Keyd | 55c | 2,307$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.18 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Yawara Esports | 45c | 1,874$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.81 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Yawara Esports | 38c | 1,357$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.67 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Keyd | 41c | 1,204$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.95 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yawara Esports | 43c | 1,093$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.97 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yawara Esports | 30c | 500$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yawara Esports | 49c | 300$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Yawara Esports | 50c | 285.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Keyd | 45c | 284$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Keyd | 34c | 273.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Keyd | 54c | 258.59$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yawara Esports | 50c | 254.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Keyd | 54c | 243.37$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Keyd | 60c | 242.33$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Keyd | 43c | 215.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Keyd | 54c | 205$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…dac0backed Keyd | 75c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 414 | 75.4%312 W · 102 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Keyd | 51c | 194.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Yawara Esports | 54c | 187.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Keyd | 69c | 180.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Keyd | 38c | 167.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Keyd | 48c | 159.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Keyd | 55c | 130.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Keyd | 47c | 104.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yawara Esports | 77c | 101.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 378 | 59.5%225 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Keyd | 69c | 96.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…8fdfbacked Yawara Esports | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…bb5bbacked Yawara Esports | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Keyd | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…f2f8backed Yawara Esports | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yawara Esports | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Keyd | 58c | 68.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yawara Esports | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keyd | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Keyd | 73c | 59.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked Yawara Esports | 37c | 55.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Keyd | 67c | 54.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…e597backed Yawara Esports | 34c | 53.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Keyd | 71c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Keyd | 47c | 43.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3467…a440backed Keyd | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed Keyd | 65c | 41.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 188 | 71.8%135 W · 53 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Keyd | 42c | 37.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 121 | 76%92 W · 29 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a6…f22bbacked Keyd | 68c | 20.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yawara Esports | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 173 | 60.1%104 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…c0e1backed Keyd | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm PlayoffsKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerKeyd won
- Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5)Yawara Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.