Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b793e0faa6542c71bbd3a17cb6cf9f523c342db1d5e274ce8677ec121f60958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 471$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.06 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 278.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 209.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 202.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 131.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 109.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 106.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 50c | 105.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 98.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 87.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 51c | 81.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5a9cbacked Yes | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 77.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 66.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 54.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 51.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 49c | 41.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 48c | 39.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 49c | 38.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 63c | 35.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 28.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 28.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 51c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 51c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…1b58backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.