Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822616e8e06371d5a3c3c6a30d3878d38dcf71dbae8415632956bbe7e7ceac83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 1,799$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.82 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 970.08$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.05 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 598.34$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.17 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 523.13$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.91 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 497.26$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.24 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 464.99$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.33 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 34c | 436.32$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 297.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 282.79$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 237.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 34c | 228.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 228$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 227.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 164.51$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 62c | 158.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 137.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 75c | 134.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 10c | 114.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 92.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 39c | 88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 60c | 81.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 81.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 69.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 24c | 67.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 63.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 27c | 60.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 64c | 59.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 52c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 32c | 50.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 41.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 64c | 39.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 68c | 38.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 34.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 33.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 35c | 31.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 30.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 28.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 28.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…c794backed Yes | 80c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 63c | 23.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 64c | 21.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 62c | 21.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 65c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1764backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.