South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b9e454733f9de71fab6204575cb9aa97a2bd18477e16c53b218d1bb210e7281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 77c | 12,000$9,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.97 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 6,220$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 22c | 5,450$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 22c | 3,396$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.25 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,742$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.78 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 23c | 2,441$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 1,924$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 79c | 1,492$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.01 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 14c | 1,400$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 22c | 1,249$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 23c | 997.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.19 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…d76abacked Yes | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 80c | 438.45$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Yes | 79c | 426.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 375.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 22c | 341$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 324.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 24c | 303.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 79c | 230.05$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 15c | 205.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 21c | 203$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 23c | 197.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 78c | 158.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 19c | 152.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 125.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…b218backed Yes | 75c | 95.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 90.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed No | 24c | 84.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…179abacked Yes | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 21c | 70.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 21c | 64.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 77c | 62.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 52.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 40.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…8f5dbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca17…9ca6backed Yes | 78c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.