Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba5960a106c8f2892888be04755c2159762e6d01ef65a96cee1d9ec43d12ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b2e…14bdbacked No | 1c | 1,244$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 434.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 359.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 333.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 242.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 14c | 237.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 14c | 225.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 15c | 212.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 13c | 197.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 15c | 189.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 18c | 163.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 147.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 11c | 140.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 35c | 135.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 11c | 133.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 16c | 125.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…32fabacked No | 12c | 109.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 105.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 19c | 102.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 78c | 91.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 90.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…ed07backed Yes | 79c | 87.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 23c | 82.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 76.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 19c | 64.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 20c | 55.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 29c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.