Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba90eb28168fae2d23c13d73970eb26323f4e22019a641e19d1477c413e0f26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 2,140$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.81 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 986.23$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 68c | 922.6$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.13 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 829.1$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 673.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 425$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 34c | 425$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 29c | 312.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 47c | 212.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 125.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 48.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 70c | 39.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…879cbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 24.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 61c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Under | 64c | 15.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Vaduz vs. FC Inter Turku: Team to AdvanceFC Inter Turku won
- Spread: FC Vaduz (-1.5)FC Inter Turku won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.