NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb4090fe78815d614d015dfb3e3204afb8d0125b6ec6602b360dcd0e21cffa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 47c | 3,500$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.33 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 3,377$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.69 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 2,661$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.69 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,916$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Over | 47c | 1,027$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.48 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 826.07$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 248.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 55c | 182.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 48c | 171.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 169.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 47c | 142.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 141.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 31c | 139$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 130.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 123.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 50c | 123.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 117.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 47c | 104.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 53c | 94.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 34c | 77.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 49c | 68.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…b15bbacked Under | 54c | 67.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 58.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 50c | 57.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 53c | 51.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 53c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 47.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…f1a8backed Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 37.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…0b62backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 34.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…0814backed Over | 51c | 33.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…cce8backed Under | 50c | 29.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcc…de88backed Under | 50c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…60bbbacked Over | 51c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Over | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 24.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 52c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Kraken vs. StarsStars won
- Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.