MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc12491f9818dca4a5a012506dcd1cfe69f0bada0380301e9c487ef81d313d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 20,303$10,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,739.11 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 18,149$8,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,619.2 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Houston Astros | 48c | 3,273$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.43 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 1,750$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.01 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 601.96$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.96 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 47c | 493.6$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 485.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 465.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 452$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.04 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Houston Astros | 47c | 360.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 198$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Houston Astros | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Houston Astros | 48c | 79.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 76.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Houston Astros | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Houston Astros | 47c | 50.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1f…f75ebacked Houston Astros | 50c | 29.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…a64fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…ddd3backed Houston Astros | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7026…ded9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…ab2bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…b1d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 27.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea99…bb3ebacked Houston Astros | 51c | 27.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…3f53backed Houston Astros | 51c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…f960backed Houston Astros | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…2b0cbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 24.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…4dcbbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…9ae8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…3861backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…d451backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…0229backed Houston Astros | 50c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…afa0backed Houston Astros | 51c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…a56fbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…3bc7backed Houston Astros | 51c | 20.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…2520backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 19.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.