Boxing · resolved market
Will the fight end in Round 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc1542a4ec7808eaa4e4b480358c1f96f97259c4e3d688f0541ee6979d3690e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 10c | 9,847$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 8,536$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.6 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,294$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed Yes | 13c | 2,315$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…723fbacked Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked Yes | 12c | 486.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…ffcfbacked Yes | 12c | 404.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8757…872dbacked Yes | 13c | 364.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 13c | 333.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…3c84backed Yes | 12c | 327.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…8f9dbacked Yes | 12c | 317.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…0f18backed Yes | 6c | 257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked Yes | 12c | 163.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…dfddbacked Yes | 12c | 160.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddab…5416backed Yes | 13c | 159.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +305.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…8427backed Yes | 13c | 155.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…6e97backed Yes | 13c | 154.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 16c | 154.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…31a0backed Yes | 13c | 146.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…f8a8backed Yes | 9c | 141.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes | 10c | 123.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe5cbacked Yes | 13c | 117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight end in Round 4?this page
- Will the fight end in Round 1?No won
- Will the fight end in Round 3?No won
- Will the fight end in Round 5?No won
- Will the fight end in Round 6?Yes won
- Will the fight end in Round 7?No won
- Will the fight end in Round 8?No won
- Will the fight end in the Round 2?No won
- Will the fight go the distance?No won
- Will the fight not be scored by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.