Tennis · resolved market
ITF Huamantla: Joshua Peck vs Matthew Thomson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc9e468f6fb4456a8e93c53d851a658cf978d9381fe6eaf66b4d9eb4c97a686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matthew Thomsonof Joshua Peck, Matthew Thomson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Joshua Peck | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Matthew Thomson | 73c | 2,506$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.92 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matthew Thomson | 61c | 1,501$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Matthew Thomson | 52c | 900$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Joshua Peck | 17c | 813.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matthew Thomson | 54c | 666.52$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.88 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Joshua Peck | 49c | 618.15$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.57 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Joshua Peck | 45c | 363.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.49 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa477…c9c2backed Joshua Peck | 47c | 320.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Joshua Peck | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Joshua Peck | 44c | 187.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Matthew Thomson | 58c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Joshua Peck | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Matthew Thomson | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Joshua Peck | 36c | 83.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Matthew Thomson | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Joshua Peck | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Matthew Thomson | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matthew Thomson | 50c | 44.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Matthew Thomson | 57c | 42.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56e…1a13backed Joshua Peck | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Matthew Thomson | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Matthew Thomson | 61c | 29.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Matthew Thomson | 56c | 26.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Matthew Thomson | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked Matthew Thomson | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Matthew Thomson | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.