Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Maneiro vs. Yastremska (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bd9c9aaca84f4114ff9e18b87d77c788f1728668ee335b46f25495d767f20d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maneiroof Maneiro, Yastremska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yastremska | 21c | 7,952$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.48 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Maneiro | 70c | 4,893$3,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.2 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yastremska | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yastremska | 25c | 881$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.56 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yastremska | 62c | 852.63$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.63 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yastremska | 50c | 702.5$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Maneiro | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Maneiro | 44c | 463$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.28 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…1709backed Yastremska | 66c | 445.12$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Yastremska | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Maneiro | 34c | 381.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.92 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yastremska | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Maneiro | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Maneiro | 52c | 281.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maneiro | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maneiro | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yastremska | 20c | 261.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yastremska | 67c | 217.65$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yastremska | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yastremska | 28c | 111.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Maneiro | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yastremska | 20c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Maneiro | 34c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yastremska | 33c | 46.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yastremska | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7084backed Maneiro | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yastremska | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yastremska | 39c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.