NHL · resolved market
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Spartak Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bdab3ebe9cfe12761808eeecb1ef09613eaa3f6af81c362de5d2e5934a20387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spartak Moscowof Shanghai Dragons, Spartak Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d99…91afbacked Shanghai Dragons | 45c | 6,453$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…3ec1backed Spartak Moscow | 55c | 6,434$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ff…1e37backed Spartak Moscow | 55c | 6,213$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,795.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…2b5dbacked Shanghai Dragons | 45c | 6,188$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Spartak Moscow | 58c | 1,713$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Shanghai Dragons | 42c | 1,298$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.19 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Shanghai Dragons | 45c | 1,000$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.13 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Spartak Moscow | 54c | 587.18$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Shanghai Dragons | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Spartak Moscow | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed Spartak Moscow | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Spartak Moscow | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Spartak Moscow | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Shanghai Dragons | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Shanghai Dragons | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Shanghai Dragons | 42c | 44.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spartak Moscow | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Shanghai Dragons | 43c | 36.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Spartak Moscow | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Spartak Moscow | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.