Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AVS Futebol (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bf532964acbbd928370966fb6339e77a4eec057ea6abc6748d83e0f6bb811be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVS Futebolof AVS Futebol, FC Porto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2461…f240backed FC Porto | 45c | 4,000$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AVS Futebol | 39c | 1,783$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.62 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVS Futebol | 64c | 1,559$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.26 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed AVS Futebol | 53c | 490.78$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed AVS Futebol | 40c | 242.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked AVS Futebol | 43c | 231.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed AVS Futebol | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed AVS Futebol | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked FC Porto | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked AVS Futebol | 42c | 71.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed AVS Futebol | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed FC Porto | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AVS Futebol (-1.5)this page
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 0.5Over won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Over won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)AVS Futebol won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)AVS Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.