NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bfde9d01be1bf302f9e0f23c5a5e38a3a02f5701db19d43d80fa58e7ba8b0db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,317$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.07 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 5c | 1,463$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 40c | 1,160$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.08 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 41c | 1,042$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 7c | 963$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Under | 70c | 840.12$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.71 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 527.71$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 11c | 288.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 68c | 252.21$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…2ab2backed Over | 52c | 218.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…c62abacked Under | 48c | 216$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c3…9493backed Under | 48c | 214$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b38…154dbacked Under | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…c155backed Over | 52c | 205.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab9…6021backed Over | 52c | 205.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…3f6ebacked Over | 52c | 204.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…aecdbacked Under | 48c | 204$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…036fbacked Over | 52c | 203.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a2…3374backed Under | 48c | 202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…8d61backed Under | 48c | 201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…0904backed Over | 52c | 200.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 200.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…9776backed Over | 52c | 196.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…3775backed Over | 52c | 195.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…4efcbacked Under | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…2ea8backed Under | 48c | 185$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…2d0bbacked Under | 48c | 185$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa449…fa39backed Under | 48c | 184$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…03b1backed Over | 52c | 182.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…3d29backed Over | 52c | 180.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 40c | 148.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 69c | 132.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 40c | 103.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 38c | 93.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 69c | 76.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 46c | 67.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 53c | 59.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…62bebacked Under | 39c | 51.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 45.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 54c | 43.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 58c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 27c | 36.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 38c | 31.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Under | 33c | 31.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 58c | 28.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 39c | 26.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Under | 45c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Over | 67c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 48c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. BluesBlues won
- Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Blues: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.