Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c20019dd4c6e8b1875427821f20e6b3689b093b27638a85c9a54f1d17d57cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 43c | 273.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 192.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 12c | 156.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 154.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 47c | 150.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 46c | 133.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 69c | 121.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 55c | 118.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 109.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 107.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 105.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 50c | 96.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 96.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 54c | 92.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 78 | 89.7%70 W · 8 L | +28.3wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 81+0.28 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 56c | 87.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 72.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 49c | 66.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 64c | 54.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 52.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 45c | 49.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…1822backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 43.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 42.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 40.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e6…319dbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 39.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 65c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 33.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 30.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 74c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 27.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 71c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 23.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 57c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 66c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.