Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Jesper de Jong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb2ee4fd47a204f5d3a4f6111d17ee46ac041667c06eb6647ae7d7bdb7b6558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jong | 1c | 11,370$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jong | 5c | 8,426$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.3 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jong | 5c | 4,190$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.68 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Jong | 1c | 4,098$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Jong | 5c | 3,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Jong | 4c | 3,054$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jong | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Jong | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jong | 6c | 1,225$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Jong | 5c | 1,199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jong | 6c | 873.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Jong | 5c | 784.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Jong | 4c | 599.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jong | 4c | 493$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Jong | 5c | 377.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Jong | 5c | 306.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Jong | 4c | 299.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Jong | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Jong | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…494bbacked Jong | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…4600backed Jong | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Jesper de Jongthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs JongMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)Medvedev won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.