Olympics · resolved market

Will China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdc03de46d6bb4155d4a0ad02d9df6c02bd7a9aea30a7a8adcc04d47e6c1184

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $143,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,390 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9958…36b9backed No	17c	24,000$4,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,007.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed No	2c	7,818$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No	1c	4,792$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed No	9c	2,010$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.71	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	1c	1,628$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	44	2.3%1 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No	2c	1,239$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	42	0%0 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	2c	1,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	63	0%0 W · 63 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efd…44c9backed No	9c	1,098$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c94…e080backed No	3c	1,053$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9017…9cc9backed No	15c	1,002$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No	10c	946.37$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No	5c	608.56$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…b99bbacked No	3c	591$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e7…045abacked No	9c	569.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed No	18c	553.72$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eca…bafdbacked No	4c	512.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e14…3e23backed No	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked No	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4644…a2b6backed No	12c	469.93$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.56	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ac…ef3bbacked No	19c	207.73$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed No	17c	206.36$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No	11c	202.48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.39	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No	12c	172.57$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	17c	172.08$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…0743backed No	19c	160.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	11c	157$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No	16c	140$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked No	15c	134.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f03…0f1dbacked No	19c	127.76$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4608…0841backed No	15c	117.48$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe876…42b6backed No	17c	70$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	76c	51.51$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.36	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event