Olympics · resolved market

Will Spain record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef2556559a036f358b4dcaca861bbf0a24e6e1d6373ed2e540f6cbc813cb70d8

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,894 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes	56c	1,699$949 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.55	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed No	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	46c	585.82$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.86	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba1…9656backed No	58c	345.13$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bd5…6428backed No	52c	336.45$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.89	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed No	43c	268.63$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.24	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed No	46c	218.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed No	50c	199.56$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.35	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eca…3a06backed Yes	40c	176.13$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.02	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+27%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a84…f8fbbacked Yes	65c	152.3$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.83	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	38c	136.56$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.99	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes	51c	133.14$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.77	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed No	35c	120.98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.34	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	31c	113.37$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+81.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	34c	112.31$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No	29c	107.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.69	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked No	50c	105$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed No	45c	102.24$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed No	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+104.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x926c…5234backed No	59c	90.7$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.91	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	36c	80.08$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.53	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	62c	70$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	42c	68.8$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aad…4c0fbacked No	42c	59.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac5…446dbacked No	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1380…fb79backed No	47c	47.79$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes	64c	46.88$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.88	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eca…bafdbacked Yes	63c	45.87$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99c9backed No	42c	43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes	55c	39.95$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4644…a2b6backed Yes	53c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed No	46c	38.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.35per pick	50cpaid	-81%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	36c	37.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f8…8520backed No	40c	30.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ef0…f52dbacked Yes	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	58c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.65	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78a1…b93dbacked No	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	68cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d46…7e1dbacked No	63c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Spain record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event