Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4e4d0a99ceecb1beb0954577b18378e463a5bfc1b0c2c761f01822807e8979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aomqu and friendsof Team Essence, Aomqu and friends
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Aomqu and friends | 57c | 707$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.04 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aomqu and friends | 55c | 706.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed Team Essence | 44c | 527.19$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Essence | 46c | 499.75$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Team Essence | 33c | 470.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.16 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed Team Essence | 39c | 423.63$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.17 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Aomqu and friends | 67c | 310$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…d6a4backed Team Essence | 47c | 254.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…5cd7backed Team Essence | 9c | 245.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…d689backed Team Essence | 42c | 238.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aomqu and friends | 15c | 232.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.9 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Aomqu and friends | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Team Essence | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Aomqu and friends | 66c | 196.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Aomqu and friends | 66c | 152.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Aomqu and friends | 64c | 134.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47a…9a31backed Team Essence | 10c | 110.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Aomqu and friends | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Team Essence | 76c | 91.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Aomqu and friends | 32c | 85.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Team Essence | 52c | 74.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Essence | 51c | 65.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Team Essence | 72c | 60.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aomqu and friends | 57c | 52.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Aomqu and friends | 66c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…3798backed Team Essence | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Team Essence | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Essence | 39c | 37.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Aomqu and friends | 32c | 37.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…7802backed Aomqu and friends | 60c | 34.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +192.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Team Essence | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…3212backed Team Essence | 58c | 33.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Aomqu and friends | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Aomqu and friends | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…71f8backed Aomqu and friends | 63c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed Team Essence | 65c | 24.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Aomqu and friends | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aomqu and friends | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Aomqu and friends | 51c | 22.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…dd13backed Aomqu and friends | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Aomqu and friends | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Aomqu and friends | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends - Game 2 WinnerAomqu and friends won
- Game Handicap: A&F (-1.5) vs Team Essence (+1.5)Aomqu and friends won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.