Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7a9785d17dae36d06e765da90c95c6138ddaf3b197ea5840c3799a3f5da7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a6d…cf4abacked Over | 0c | 3,685$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +460.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Under | 70c | 2,250$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +474.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Over | 26c | 917.42$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +230%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…8024backed Over | 4c | 286.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Over | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed Over | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed Over | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageAomqu and friends won
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Aomqu and friends - Game 2 WinnerAomqu and friends won
- Game Handicap: A&F (-1.5) vs Team Essence (+1.5)Aomqu and friends won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.