Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d557b265b49740323f9052f68a960e124ed2fd38adbd98a6bb9a7502d074c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 1c | 1,588$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 17c | 720.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 78c | 459.31$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 3c | 408.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 251.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 31c | 246.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 219.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 69c | 193.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…1bb0backed Yes | 30c | 153.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 72c | 141.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 26c | 125.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 32c | 116.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 35c | 93.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 42c | 90.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 72.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 68c | 72.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 26c | 71.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 68.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…f921backed No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 25c | 67.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 75c | 65.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 58.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 55.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 52.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 52.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 42c | 49.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 31c | 46.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 44.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 32c | 41.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 36.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 31c | 33.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…b712backed No | 70c | 26.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 70c | 25.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 21.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.