Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d61ff2cc58fb66f9616439bda26292b885d1cdd803de53f02eb2791c9f2cbb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 10c | 2,371$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.27 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 1c | 2,272$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 11c | 451.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.13 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 369.79$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 339.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 42c | 300.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 11c | 286.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 213.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 201.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 16c | 199.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 177.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 177.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 13c | 168.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 9c | 167.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 74c | 159.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 43c | 149.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 18c | 142.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 42c | 118.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 10c | 116.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 11c | 112.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 12c | 89.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…4781backed Yes | 13c | 78.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 75.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 64.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…8f81backed Yes | 29c | 64.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 63c | 46.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 43.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 38.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 39c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 56c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.