Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd8576d7b9daf77a2587bd546952c81882423b4b651c6ee78564ab73f5aac4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 831.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 36c | 704.03$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.45 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 480.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 431.31$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 22c | 402.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 372.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 363.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 331.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 313.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 301.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 44c | 286.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 29c | 216.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 37c | 185.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 171.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 18c | 158.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 132.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 53c | 126.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 45c | 106.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 102.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 97.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 97.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 37c | 95.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 93.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 91.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 87.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 87.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 24c | 84.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 79.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 78.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 50c | 76.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 32c | 75.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 74.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 74.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 70.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 70c | 69.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 67.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 21c | 67.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 65.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 40c | 63.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 50c | 62.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 58.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 17c | 58.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 56.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 56.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 54.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 73c | 50.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 44c | 47.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 47.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 37c | 46.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 43c | 44.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 44.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…324fbacked Yes | 59c | 44.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…4781backed Yes | 42c | 39.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 38c | 36.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed Yes | 43c | 35.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 34.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 33.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d9b8backed No | 76c | 30.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…5ed3backed Yes | 45c | 30.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 64c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 79c | 26.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 67c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 46c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 79c | 23.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed No | 80c | 23.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 62c | 22.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 68c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5e39backed No | 79c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 71c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…6d08backed No | 72c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…1da7backed No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 75c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 75c | 13.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 78c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.