Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d75c8b0c1d017b8ae8180f1b2d2f9ede5b6fda2696bb6322cc94a051e0af001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 31c | 609.3$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.24 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 214$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 62c | 210.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 171$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 44c | 169.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 45c | 91.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 80.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 53.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 45.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 57c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 35.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 31.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 58c | 30.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 27.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 26.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 68c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.