Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8610d25087d84a643677d8347f905d1844d14fbab513cd2b999175110db751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 715.1$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 33c | 632.18$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.24 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 316.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 278.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 217.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 34c | 185.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 160.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 155.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 145.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 113.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 109.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 101.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 35c | 101.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 30c | 94.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 90.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 90.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 83.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 79.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 79.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 70.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 40c | 58.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 49.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 29c | 47.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 44.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 66c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 59c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 63c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.