College Football · resolved market
Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d877d9eb1c5eeb29426957435880dfa59b7cc78923a7693d4bbe34038339e26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kennesaw Stateof Arkansas State, Kennesaw State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Kennesaw State | 36c | 9,888$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,328.32 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Arkansas State | 64c | 9,819$6,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,284.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Kennesaw State | 37c | 2,699$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.34 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arkansas State | 24c | 2,648$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.71 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Arkansas State | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kennesaw State | 76c | 1,927$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.55 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arkansas State | 15c | 1,751$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.42 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Kennesaw State | 35c | 1,610$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.53 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arkansas State | 63c | 1,562$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.09 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Arkansas State | 64c | 1,367$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Arkansas State | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Kennesaw State | 36c | 736.23$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.19 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Arkansas State | 3c | 678.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kennesaw State | 34c | 520.73$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.8 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kennesaw State | 74c | 352.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arkansas State | 20c | 313$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Arkansas State | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arkansas State | 18c | 306.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Arkansas State | 65c | 302.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arkansas State | 65c | 293.93$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas State | 10c | 238$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kennesaw State | 75c | 231.6$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Kennesaw State | 35c | 191.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Arkansas State | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Kennesaw State | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Arkansas State | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Arkansas State | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Arkansas State | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Arkansas State | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Kennesaw State | 37c | 92.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kennesaw State | 35c | 79.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas State | 13c | 79.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Arkansas State | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Arkansas State | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Kennesaw State | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Arkansas State | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Arkansas State | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arkansas State | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Kennesaw State | 35c | 33.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…2170backed Kennesaw State | 79c | 33.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Arkansas State | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Arkansas State | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…c686backed Arkansas State | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…15d7backed Kennesaw State | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Kennesaw State | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…77adbacked Arkansas State | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Arkansas State | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…fbb5backed Arkansas State | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw Statethis page
- Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State: O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas State (-4.5)Kennesaw State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.