Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d9912b79f00633b829ff851fb633fa94c33312741e7f00c8ce963a0fc703e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,002$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.72 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 816$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 61c | 487.89$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 26c | 338$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 76c | 105.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 51.7%75 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 28c | 68.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 24c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 56c | 54.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 255 | 53.7%137 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Under | 78c | 44.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…d01bbacked Under | 65c | 44.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 39.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 28.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…7a9dbacked Under | 76c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.