Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb4b7b2629ad9a8f8d88fa2d8d482ed6d7bd06412aceb7d43c27dcaa64cef2b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 74c | 2,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 2,268$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.56 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,215$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.09 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 73c | 272.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 71c | 270$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 29c | 270$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 74c | 207.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 159.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 141.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…f427backed Over | 73c | 138.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 138.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 25c | 52.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4a50backed Under | 28c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed Over | 72c | 49.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 36.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 73c | 28.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…9d4dbacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 72c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.