WNBA · resolved market
Lynx vs Sparks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d994eccaca8e48a906295195b28359af7d345eb2f2ee43cc17024ba1e993c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Lynx, Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Sparks | 28c | 3,464$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Lynx | 78c | 2,674$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Sparks | 14c | 2,266$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lynx | 72c | 2,035$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.58 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Lynx | 72c | 1,748$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked Sparks | 32c | 1,561$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Lynx | 74c | 1,326$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.33 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sparks | 26c | 1,033$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.47 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Sparks | 22c | 1,022$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sparks | 22c | 751.56$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Sparks | 25c | 729.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lynx | 71c | 715.71$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sparks | 43c | 594$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.22 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Lynx | 76c | 561.36$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…183ebacked Sparks | 29c | 357.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Lynx | 75c | 267.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Lynx | 65c | 205.6$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Sparks | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sparks | 27c | 170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Lynx | 71c | 148.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lynx | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Sparks | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Lynx | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Sparks | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Sparks | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sparks | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lynx | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Lynx | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Sparks | 23c | 96.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Lynx | 75c | 95.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lynx | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Sparks | 20c | 73.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Lynx | 75c | 66.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed Lynx | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Sparks | 28c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Lynx | 72c | 34.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lynx | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Lynx | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.