College Football · resolved market
Virginia vs. Louisville
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d99a508b8a16cb8261dfee26b00dea8b733c19c10f5cb78417444a8f6230240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginiaof Virginia, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Virginia | 47c | 38,354$18,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,291.17 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Louisville | 69c | 14,493$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville | 52c | 11,335$5,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,850.18 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Virginia | 31c | 10,060$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.69 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Louisville | 57c | 6,448$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.91 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Louisville | 68c | 5,632$3,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.54 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Louisville | 42c | 3,294$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.27 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Virginia | 31c | 3,249$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.77 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Virginia | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.97 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Louisville | 48c | 2,941$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.37 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Louisville | 51c | 2,507$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.11 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louisville | 55c | 2,091$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.79 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Virginia | 56c | 2,029$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.67 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville | 70c | 1,430$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.32 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…04bfbacked Virginia | 36c | 1,394$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.23 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Louisville | 67c | 1,330$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.2 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Virginia | 31c | 1,065$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.84 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Louisville | 48c | 899.99$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.46 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…a43cbacked Virginia | 34c | 886.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Louisville | 69c | 869.57$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Virginia | 32c | 699.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Virginia | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…4c54backed Virginia | 34c | 585.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Louisville | 68c | 577$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.36 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Virginia | 33c | 500$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Virginia | 44c | 458.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.43 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Louisville | 67c | 425.29$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.69 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked Louisville | 69c | 324.64$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08a…f88fbacked Virginia | 33c | 300.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Virginia | 35c | 270$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Louisville | 61c | 244.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Louisville | 65c | 238.92$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Virginia | 64c | 218.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Virginia | 56c | 201$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Virginia | 48c | 192.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…a240backed Louisville | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisville | 50c | 152$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Virginia | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Virginia | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Louisville | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Louisville | 68c | 126.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Louisville | 68c | 121.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Louisville | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Virginia | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Virginia | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Louisville | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…a42bbacked Virginia | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Virginia | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…f35bbacked Louisville | 68c | 83.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Louisville | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Louisville | 68c | 80.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -6.7wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Louisville | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Louisville | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Louisville | 66c | 60.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…8bc3backed Virginia | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Virginia | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Louisville | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Louisville | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Louisville | 66c | 49.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Virginia | 48c | 34.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Virginia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…b363backed Virginia | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Louisville | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Louisville | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…b015backed Louisville | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Louisville | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…b9f4backed Virginia | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Louisville | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…3ba5backed Louisville | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Virginia | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virginia vs. Louisvillethis page
- O/U 62.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville (-6.5)Virginia won
- Spread: Louisville (-7.5)Virginia won
- Virginia vs. Louisville: O/U 60.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.