Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc4344daf4aafa5dacd666d4a6ec2e6d6dbd80b2bfd99528d593c173cd5f87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 494.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 62c | 411.4$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 389.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 309.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 305.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 22c | 239.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 222.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 213.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 77c | 203.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed No | 75c | 173.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 74c | 169.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 163.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 146.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 145.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 137.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 34c | 120.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 120.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Yes | 40c | 117.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 69c | 108.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 101.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 99.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 88.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 81.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 31c | 78.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 30c | 74.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 33c | 71.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 24c | 65.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 30c | 62.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 19c | 55.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 69c | 39.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 50c | 31.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 72c | 26.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…9639backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…ebb2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 72c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…abaebacked No | 73c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…f690backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 74c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.