Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee23ba609cf85d7442142970cd35d2451897d5b1b385b3fe7dbda5194b60858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 57c | 2,573$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.7 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 18c | 579.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 6c | 456.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.04 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 49c | 414.89$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.03 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 414.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 409.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 25c | 368.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 32c | 329.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 39c | 307.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.03 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 303.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 301.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 238.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 219.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed Yes | 79c | 214.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 207.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 33c | 190.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked No | 66c | 167.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 151.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 146.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 25c | 141.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 139.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 39c | 136.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 39c | 127.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 123.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Yes | 38c | 122.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 11c | 122.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 21c | 108.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 102.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 95.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 60c | 89.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 88.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 36c | 73.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 29c | 73.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 75c | 70.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 40c | 68.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…662ebacked No | 75c | 65.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…aeb1backed No | 46c | 61.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed Yes | 47c | 60.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 70c | 59.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 19c | 56.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 51.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes | 31c | 50.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 71c | 47.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 34c | 36.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 74c | 35.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…6c7ebacked Yes | 52c | 34.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 79c | 33.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 70c | 33.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed No | 60c | 33.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 78c | 32.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 60c | 30.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 28.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 72c | 27.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 54c | 24.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 77c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…53a0backed No | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 66c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 71c | 18.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.