Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dcd873826983c917fa70f643ce3db20987aa638d37b47b57af7dcae6e9134aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 49c | 1,091$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.23 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 78c | 1,082$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 725.05$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 35c | 677.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.09 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 67c | 473.39$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 353.81$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.68 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 13c | 346.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 227.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 28c | 204.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 29c | 191.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 182.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 167.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 157.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 27c | 111.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 78c | 107.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 105.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 19c | 100.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 15c | 90.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 32c | 88.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 26c | 79.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 60c | 65.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 49c | 64.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 50.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 46.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 35c | 40.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 73c | 38.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 31c | 38.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 56c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…9e89backed Yes | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 30c | 35.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 60c | 28.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.