Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe348dc1559c13304bb8e4376d60b6b4c5369298c37a299e6784bbac0d50f83be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 437.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 416$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.56 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 36c | 283.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 221.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 20c | 217.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 189.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 78c | 188.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 79c | 185.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 73c | 171.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 19c | 143.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 70c | 141.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 40c | 116.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 19c | 112.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 109.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 29c | 106.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 36c | 104.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 30c | 93.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 70c | 69.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 77c | 64.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 47c | 60.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 35c | 53.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 30c | 53.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 69c | 50.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 45c | 47.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 34c | 47.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 33c | 46.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 30c | 41.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 41.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…8343backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 49c | 37.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 65c | 36.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8b1dbacked No | 33c | 34.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +107%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 53c | 33.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 80c | 33.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 70c | 29.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 62c | 28.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 63c | 27.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 56c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 57c | 27.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 74c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed Yes | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 67c | 15.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.