TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,768 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19f4…c772backed Yes22c863.1$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.371,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes30c719.86$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.831,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c393.73$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c313.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes7c283.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No75c265.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.982,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No79c254.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.014,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e90…2005backed Yes11c181.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No69c177.51$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes17c177.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes31c140.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.392,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c133.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No72c130.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.141,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd48…1e93backed No79c127.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.037852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes22c115.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No80c115.06$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes13c112.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.758732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No60c112.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No73c106.43$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.864,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No78c104.51$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9918368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed Yes40c88.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4120347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa621…0e64backed Yes39c87.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed Yes34c87.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes36c83.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.982941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes44c73.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c69.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked No58c62.88$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4116733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed Yes40c58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3613554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c57.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.393,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No58c53.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4546667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No56c49.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c48.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes39c38.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3729…41c8backed Yes40c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes42c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No61c31.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.315850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.37342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.385,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1715375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No79c23.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.752,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.85448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No80c19.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.962,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No79c19.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.