Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4deebf7d5bb2bdae0ecaae211e36ab65ce67cc591b17f60086ca0019ccf0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 22c | 768.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 491.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 74c | 345.33$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 18c | 270.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 71c | 253$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 227.25$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 208.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 27c | 198.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 173$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 155.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 31c | 115.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 102.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 23c | 88.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 86.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 79.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 72.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 19c | 69.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 57.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 23c | 57.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 56.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 52.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 24c | 41.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 41.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 36.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 31.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 30.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 26.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.