Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b2ea209b04138afb09a0d0439f3baa84a595a9b2721a18e3c2de1bcc1bc2822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 1,053$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.39 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 39c | 674.78$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 39c | 494.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.79 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 364.11$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 349.94$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 349.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.68 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 306.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 295.09$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 210.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 192.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 174.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 155.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 30c | 152.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 140.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 134.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 119.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 105.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 98.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 96.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 86.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed Yes | 33c | 84.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 68c | 74.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 64.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 64.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 51c | 60.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 57.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 51.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 65c | 46.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 46.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 41.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 75c | 39.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 35c | 39.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 36.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 64c | 36.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked No | 35c | 31.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 35c | 30.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 26.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 25.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 24.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 52c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 19.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.