Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de12566846ccb97a7eb78c4d7a3131e448a2eea034f83961645c0285eadda5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 2,172$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.26 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 557.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 553.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 31c | 283.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 13c | 276.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 257.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 235.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 50c | 231.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 137.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 132.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 15c | 118.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 9c | 118.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 106.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 106.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 102.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 89.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 49c | 86.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 77.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 75.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 32.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.