Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e2fa0d2f7f2a32ece37ed8dd0c13a967cc3a7433007fae75cd1bb790913660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 625.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.86 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 46c | 616.57$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 30c | 455.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 183.55$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 59c | 182.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 57c | 177.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 16c | 133.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 128.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 16c | 126.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 122.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 8c | 118.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 31c | 114.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 108.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 98.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 93.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 53c | 88.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 86.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 81.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 81.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 47c | 40.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 36.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 31.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 27.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…1cbfbacked Yes | 38c | 26.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 79c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.