CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ded8bf76453ba64056f8a3f62df85c539ecfd15e4bd33255f251461cebdab6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof 1WIN, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfadd…3955backed 1WIN | 56c | 4,142$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.56 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 40c | 3,043$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.35 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1WIN | 48c | 2,167$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.12 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed illwill | 50c | 1,244$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.82 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed 1WIN | 25c | 206.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed illwill | 35c | 151.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed illwill | 15c | 134.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1WIN | 59c | 132.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…9b84backed illwill | 59c | 112.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed illwill | 51c | 99.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed illwill | 33c | 88.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed illwill | 63c | 83.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 32c | 78.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed 1WIN | 30c | 76.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed illwill | 52c | 67.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed illwill | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 20c | 54.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed illwill | 59c | 38.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 157 | 38.2%60 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…18e1backed illwill | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1WIN | 41c | 33.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…5303backed illwill | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs1WIN won
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill - Map 1 Winner1WIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.