Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df88c939d619ea5039f100c7cd51b3198e2f843a698c9dfe01df788b56a385c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 512.45$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 63c | 473.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 431.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 63c | 394.39$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 284.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 63c | 210.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 62c | 161.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 9c | 144.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 141.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 41c | 132$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 90.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 84.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…3f70backed Under | 41c | 84.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Over | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 70.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 36c | 65.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 68c | 58.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 60c | 54.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 42.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 76c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…2e72backed Under | 41c | 33.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 76c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 30.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…03a8backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…f180backed Over | 61c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Over | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 79cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 79c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.