Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689abc9723ea2248ec2e152d1abc3234894ef3cc7cd8081ad9836769036e565e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 692.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 23c | 432.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 398.32$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 41c | 367$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 301.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 78c | 277.27$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 201.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 76c | 200.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 22c | 185.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 59c | 157.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 157.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 133.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 22c | 131.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 127.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 111.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 102.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 95.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 53c | 89.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 71c | 87.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 45c | 79.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 76c | 62.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…7f52backed Under | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 53.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 54c | 45.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 53c | 39.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 34.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 62c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.