Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1de63955b3a2990d3137d81128c9ad0c4d0bfc0252ee849a9c3f675a7a5288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 503.54$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 406.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 78c | 312.27$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 255.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 246.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 79c | 224.72$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.83 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 26c | 213.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 52c | 187.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 155.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 60c | 118.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 20c | 107.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 75c | 103.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 18c | 101.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 89.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 81.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 72c | 57.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 70c | 54.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 51.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 71c | 51.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 55c | 49.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 22c | 47.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 38.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 37.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 36.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 75c | 36.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 29.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 25.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 80c | 21.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 76c | 19.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 71c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…b611backed No | 79c | 14.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.