Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc206a70ddc40016b7fa0c56249652a3623d63a5eb68b428f5bdf6ec21333c0f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 409.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 370.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 20c | 237.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 17c | 183.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…1ffcbacked Yes | 12c | 182.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 58c | 99.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 99.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 94.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 87.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 77.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 46c | 73.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 38c | 69.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 69.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 45c | 54.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 54.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 35c | 45.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 40.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 69c | 38.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…4637backed Yes | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 50c | 32.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 30.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 67c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 26.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 62c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…676cbacked No | 64c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 61c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 73c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 70c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.